HONG KONG, June 26, 2024 (AFP) – Asian markets swung Wednesday following a tech-led bounce on Wall Street as investors prepare for the release of crucial US inflation data, while the yen fell back towards levels that have stirred intervention warnings from Japanese officials.
The euro also remained under pressure ahead of weekend elections in France that polls suggest will see big wins for the far-right and leftwing parties pushing President Emmanuel Macron’s centrists into third.
With few catalysts to drive action, investors were jockeying ahead of Friday’s personal consumption expenditures index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred gauge of inflation — hoping a softer reading will allow the bank to cut interest rates soon.
Comments from two monetary policymakers Tuesday did little to lift hopes for a move anytime soon.
Fed governor Michelle Bowman warned: “We are still not yet at the point where it is appropriate to lower the policy rate.
“I will remain cautious in my approach to considering future changes in the stance of policy,” she said in prepared remarks.
Fellow governor Lisa Cook added that she saw inflation slowing this year, and even more so next, and that borrowing costs could come down “at some point”.
Their remarks were broadly in line with their bank colleagues, who have said they wanted to see more evidence that prices were under control before deciding to lower rates.
The Fed’s so-called “dot plot” guide for rates points to one cut before January — down from three predicted in March — though there is much debate on whether it will make two, or even none at all.
Equity markets have been well supported this year by an expectation that officials will ease policy after a long-running campaign against sticky inflation.
However, the rally is showing signs of petering out owing to a string of data indicating the US economy and labour market remain strong, while investors are also concerned valuations may have gone too far, particularly among tech firms.
On Tuesday, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 both recovered from a recent sell-off thanks to a bounce in AI chip titan Nvidia from three days of heavy selling.
Asian investors struggled for direction in early trade, with many markets fluctuating.
Tokyo, Seoul, Wellington, Taipei and Jakarta rose, while Shanghai, Sydney and Manila were down, with Hong Kong and Singapore flat.
The uncertainty over US rates was keeping the dollar elevated, with the yen in focus as it approaches the level that forced Japan to step into forex markets earlier this year.
The country’s top currency official has said authorities were ready to act 24 hours a day if the unit fell too far. Billions was pumped in to support the yen when it hit a 34-year low of 160.17 in late April.
Traders are also poring over any comments from the Bank of Japan, which many say has been too cautious in moving away from its ultra-loose monetary policy.
It is tipped to hike interest rates next month and begin winding down its bond purchases that help keep borrowing costs down.
The euro held Tuesday’s losses before Sunday’s first round of legislative elections in France.
Macron called the snap polls after his centrists were trounced by the far-right National Rally (RN) in European Parliament elections two weeks ago.
There are fears that big wins for the RN and left-wing alliance could put France, Europe’s number two economy and key EU player, on course for a battle with Brussels over spending plans.
– Key figures around 0230 GMT –
Tokyo – Nikkei 225: UP 1.4 percent at 39,726.39 (break)
Hong Kong – Hang Seng Index: FLAT at 18,067.54
Shanghai – Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 2,937.90
Dollar/yen: UP at 159.80 yen from 159.68 yen on Tuesday
Euro/dollar: UP at $1.0717 from $1.0715
Euro/pound: UP at 84.46 pence from 84.43 pence
Pound/dollar: UP at $1.2690 from $1.2686
West Texas Intermediate: UP 0.3 percent at $81.05 per barrel
Brent North Sea Crude: UP 0.2 percent at $85.21 per barrel
New York – Dow: DOWN 0.8 percent at 39,112.16 (close)
London – FTSE 100: DOWN 0.4 percent at 8,247.79 (close)
