By Didier LAURAS
PARIS, Dec 19, 2023 (AFP) – A multinational naval task force to protect a key global shipping lane from Yemen’s Huthi rebels would face severe challenges in a difficult strategic and military context, experts say.
The United States has been pushing for such a force after Huthis pledged to continue attacking cargo ships in the Red Sea in support of Palestinians in the Gaza war raging between Israel and militant group Hamas.
The task force, first announced late Monday, would include warships from the United States as well as Britain, Canada, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Norway and other countries.
Here is a list of factors that could prove problematic for such a force.
– The Huthi threat –
The Yemen rebels have been using missiles and drones to disrupt cargo ships in the Red Sea, notably close to the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
Thanks to improving technology for these attack weapons, “countries and groups with no airforces or weak airforces are capable of conducting long range strikes using drones or antiship missiles,” said Fabian Hinz at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
“That’s a new reality for the West,” he told AFP.
Not only do the airborne weapons pose a massive threat in their own right, they also draw defensive attention away from naval attacks, including from uncrewed vessels.
“This could encourage the Huthis to use their ‘drone boats’ which have been highly effective in the past,” warned Dirk Siebels at Risk Intelligence, a Danish risk assessment and planning outfit.
“The mere fact that drone boats may be used certainly complicates matters significantly,” he said.
– Whose ships are they? –
The coalition’s stated aim of guaranteeing the freedom of navigation in the strait is a tall order.
The Huthis have been arguing that they are acting in “solidarity” with Palestinians and to counter the isolation of the Gaza strip at Israel’s hands.
But the reality is more complex.
“These attacks have become random and target ships that have no connection to Israel and are not heading to the port of Eilat,” said Eva Koulouriotis, an independent expert, on X, formerly Twitter.
It has become very difficult to even determine who any given ship belongs to.
“Any ship might be owned by a company registered in the Isle of Man which belongs to a German financial institution which has nominated a Singapore-based ship manager to run the vessel which is flagged in Liberia and insured in the UK,” said Siebels. “This is by no means an unusual construct.”
Since the coalition could not possibly protect every single ship, these complex structures will make the job of picking the most suitable vessels very hard.
While it could try and deter Huthis as well as prevent some attacks, the force will not be able to guarantee a danger-free passage for everyone.
– Striking back?-
While the possibility of actively striking at Huthi positions to destroy their attack potential is being talked about, it is far from being adopted as policy.
“I believe that the Israeli government is ready to launch air strikes against targets of the Huthi militia in Sanaa and Saada in Yemen, but Washington has prevented any military action out of a desire to contain this file with minimal losses,” said Koulouriotis.
US and allied ships have not so far conducted any retaliatory attacks on Huthi targets on or off the coast of Yemen, said the Soufan Center, a New York-based research body on security.
The task force could offer “an alternative to the widely recommended but significantly riskier option of conducting air strikes on Huthi targets”, it said.
However, this stance may crumble as attacks on ships in the Red Sea increase.
“The burgeoning threat to the free flow of commerce apparently has caused US and allied officials to consider air and/or missile strikes on assets the Huthis are using in their attacks,” the Soufan Center said.
– Escalation risk –
Striking at the rebels in Yemen carries the risk of opening a front against another member of the so-called “Axis of Resistance”, an informal anti-Israel and anti-Western alliance backed by Iran, which includes the Hamas and Hezbollah militant groups.
Western governments have been eager to avoid any widening of the Israel-Hamas conflict to the entire Middle East, which could risk pulling in Iran itself.
Saudi Arabia and the Huthis meanwhile are pursuing peace talks to end the war in Yemen, where some 400,000 people have died since 2014.
“The Huthis are very unlikely to jeopardise a potential deal by doing something that would lead to a Saudi reaction,” said Siebels.
Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, “has no intention to freeze its negotiations with the Houthis and revert to war with them”, said Hesham Alghannam, Director General of the Security Research Center at Naif Arab University for Security Sciences (NAUSS) in Riyadh.