TAIPEI, Taiwan (Reuters) — In Taipei’s leafy Tienmu district, nearly half the flagpoles in front of the imposing pink building that houses most foreign embassies are bare, as Taiwan’s dwindling band of diplomatic friends jump ship to its giant neighbor.
Another flag was taken down this week when tiny West African state Sao Tome and Principe severed ties with the self-ruled island.
Taiwan had as many as 30 diplomatic allies in the mid-1990s, but now has formal relations with just 21 countries, mostly smaller and poorer nations in Latin America and the Pacific.
And Beijing, which claims Taiwan as a renegade province of China, is gunning for the rest, angered by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s call with Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen earlier this month, the first public contact at that level since Washington switched recognition to China from Taiwan in 1979.
China is deeply suspicious of Tsai, who leads the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), which traditionally advocates independence for Taiwan, even though Tsai says she wants peace with China. Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.
The public remain unimpressed by the cost of what some see as a face-saving exercise, said Chuang Fu-yao, a Taipei resident walking near the embassy compound.
“Most people don’t even know how many diplomatic allies we have. Our own feeling is we are spending a lot of money to do unnecessary things. This is a common criticism towards the blue and green (political camps), us common people really just want our quality of life to improve. There is our economy, what some people call the culture of the common people, if we can increase our income everyone can live happily here. This is really what the people are hoping for the most,” he said.
Taiwan – official title Republic of China (ROC) – has competed with China for diplomatic recognition since the defeated Nationalists fled there in 1949 at the end of the Chinese civil war, but the tables turned decisively in Beijing’s favour in the 1970s when the United Nations and United States switched sides.
While Taipei and Beijing have both played that game previously, Taiwan now cannot hope to match the spending power of the world’s second-largest economy.
“Under the influence of the kinetic energy of China’s economy, although Taiwan’s allies recognise on a political level that the Republic of China is the only legitimate government, they may still hope to have relations with China regarding economy and trade. This might sometimes not directly be related to whether or not they love the Taiwanese people or if they like being an ally of Taiwan. So this is a problematic trend and also the hardest problem that Taiwan is currently facing,” said Alexander Huang, Professor for International Affairs and Strategic Studies at one of Taiwan’s high-ranking universities.
Taiwan has accused China of providing financial incentives to Sao Tome in exchange for recognition, charges Beijing denies.
“Beijing has always put restraints on Taiwan’s international participation. To improve relations with Beijing can only ease the pressure a little bit, but we really need to see the efforts we make on the international stage. We have no reason to complain and are also not in a condition to compete with others. All we can do is put in more effort,” Huang added.
In Beijing on Friday (December 23), the Foreign Ministry repeated its appreciation with Sao Tome’s decision.
“So I believe, like I said yesterday and the day before yesterday, the one China principle has been in accord with the general trend and popular sentiment of people. So I would like to take this opportunity to again show appreciation for the relevant remarks by Sao Tome’s leader and welcome Sao Tome’s return to the right path,” said Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Hua Chunying.
Taiwan’s diplomatic efforts have at times descended into farce, with some countries like Liberia switching ties several times, sometimes in the space of a few years, depending on the money they could wrangle out of Taipei or Beijing.
In 1999, Papua New Guinea (PNG) changed its mind just a week after deciding to establish ties, and in the following decade there was a public outcry after media reported millions of dollars were wasted in a failed bid to lure it back.
Taiwan lost six allies during the last DPP-led government between 2000-2008, accounting for many of the 12 empty flagpoles at the embassy building.
Under Tsai’s predecessor Ma Ying-jeou, from the more China-friendly Nationalist party, one more was lost.
Sao Tome with a population of just under 200,000, needed around $210 million in grants and low-interest loans, according to Taiwanese daily the United Daily News.
Taiwan Foreign Minister David Lee told reporters only that an “astronomical figure” was discussed.
Diplomats in Beijing have told Reuters they believe Panama, one of Taiwan’s oldest diplomatic friends, could be next to go.
Earlier this month, a large Chinese business delegation visited Panama, after Tsai was there in June for the formal opening of the expanded Panama Canal.
Seeking to shore up its Central American ties, Tsai will visit Honduras, Nicaragua, Guatemala and El Salvador next month.
In Africa, now only Swaziland and Burkina Faso have ambassador-level relations with Taiwan.