Taiwan’s elections are just days away with little clarity about how a likely win by a party that traditionally favours independence from China will go down with a neighbour that has threatened force to ensure the island never goes it alone.
Taiwan votes in a new president and parliament on January 16 when the ruling Nationalists (KMT) are expected to be soundly beaten by the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), supported by youthful voters angered by a perceived economic dependence on the mainland.
The person most likely to be Taiwan’s first woman president, DPP leader Tsai Ing-wen, 59, has offered no specific China policy other than broad comments indicating she is willing to engage the Communist rulers in Beijing.
“I will promote cross-strait policy based on the existing constitutional system of the Republic of China, based on democratic principles and according to the general public opinion. I will make the greatest efforts to seek mutually acceptable interaction between Taiwan and mainland China. I will not be provocative, nor will there be any surprises,” Tsai told a national audience on live television on Friday (January 8), when giving her final policy statement with her two rivals, Eric Chu, chairman of the ruling Nationalist party, and James Soong, chairman of the People First Party.
Taiwan bills itself officially as the “Republic of China”. Beijing calls itself the “People’s Republic of China”. China and the KMT believe there is just “one China”, but disagree on its interpretation. They say this is the status quo.
The DPP is loathed by Beijing because the party believes the future of Taiwan is for its 23 million people to decide, which Beijing takes to mean independence. The DPP does not subscribe to “one China”.
Tsai has said that “a more consistent and sustainable relationship with China will be a core goal” of her government and that she will seek “to establish constructive dialogue with China”, without explaining how she will achieve it.
Alexander Huang, professor at the Institute of International Affairs and Strategic Studies of Tamkang University, said Tsai has not wanting to risk upsetting some of her voters.
“On one hand, she wants to convey to the international community and the Taiwanese people that she is capable of maintaining a stable cross-strait relationship, on the other hand, she also needs to take into consideration that some of her supporters are pro-independence, therefore, when she made comments on cross-strait relations, she was relatively evasive and vague, I think the main purpose was to expand her voter base,” said Huang.
Huang said Tsai’s victory speech on January 16, if elected, would be something to watch closely for more clues.
“Under the premise that there are already many domestic issues to deal with, whether cross-strait relations can withstand big ups and downs is something to consider after the election. So I have been saying the chairman Tsai after the January 16 election will be a slightly different chairman Tsai from the one we are seeing during the campaigning period. That is to say, after she gets elected, she would need to maintain her future maneuvering room more carefully, she wouldn’t confine herself further,” he said.
The DPP said in a statement its position was “the maintenance of the status quo”, which included “first, to maintain the Taiwanese people’s democratic way of life and the Republic of China’s constitutional order; secondly, peaceful and stable cross-strait relations”.
The view was shared by many of Tsai’s supporters.
“As a Taiwanese citizen, and elected president, she would certainly adopt policies that are in the interest of the Taiwanese people as much as possible. I believe she has realised there are no conditions for Taiwan independence, there is only room for Taiwan to develop when it is cooperating with the other side of the strait,” said 42-year-old Chen Tse-chun.
“I will vote for Tsai Ing-wen, because I don’t support any China-leaning policies. (Issues I am concerned about are) the services trade pact, whether it will be passed, whether there are talks of unification, things like that,” said a 29-year-old man who goes by the name of Wade.
Anti-China protests over a cross-Strait services trade agreement, nicknamed the Sunflower Movement, roiled Taiwan’s legislature for weeks in the spring of 2014 in the largest display of anti-China sentiment the island had seen in years.
The pact, which would open 80 of China’s service sectors to Taiwan and 64 Taiwan sectors to China, remains deadlocked in Taiwan’s legislature to this day.
During November’s historic summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Taiwan President Ma Ying-jeou, Xi told Ma “no force can pull us apart” and warned against any move towards going it alone.
Chiang Kai-shek’s Nationalists retreated to Taiwan after losing the Chinese civil war in 1949 to the Communists, since when Beijing has never renounced the use of force to bring what it considers a breakaway province under its control.
Xi and Tsai couldn’t have more contrasting backgrounds. As Xi tested his mettle within the authoritarian system as party chief of various Chinese provinces, Tsai, in her 30s, became the island’s top negotiator for entry into the World Trade Organization, a role that pitted her brains against international experts as Taiwan, recognized as a country by only a handful of others, fought for its diplomatic life.
Tsai formally joined the DPP in 2004.
Since Ma came to power in 2008, economic ties between China and Taiwan have improved to the point where the summit appeared to symbolize a desire on both sides for continued peace and stability. (Reuters)
